Head of Market Strategy & Revenue Forecasting

Job Title

Head of Market Strategy & Revenue Forecasting

Location

Paris (preferred) or Milan

About the opportunity

Our client is a successful and award‑winning European independent power producer backed by long‑term infrastructure investors. They aspire to almost quadruple operating capacity by 2030 across France, Italy, Spain and Germany, and are building an energy management function to support this growth.

Responsibilities

• Design and own a qualified, group‑wide revenue forecasting framework, ensuring consistent methodology, full assumption traceability and clear separation between external adviser curves and the internal house view.
• Build and continuously refresh fundamental market views across four core European markets: demand growth, capacity expansion, interconnections and regulatory frameworks.
• Translate complex market intelligence into a strong, assured house view on long‑term power price dynamics, flexibility value and relative attractiveness of each country and technology.
• Own revenue and merchant‑risk sections for every investment case, delivering scenario‑based outcome distributions that move beyond deterministic NPVs toward P50/P90 and VaR‑style metrics.
• Provide strategic guardrails for the origination and portfolio team on merchant vs. contracted exposure, offtake structures and use of BESS and hybrids as portfolio hedging tools.
• Act as a reference on power market fundamentals, running briefings and sharing market intelligence with development teams, country managers and EXCOM.
• Work closely with M&A, Structured Finance and Asset Management to improve models through realised‑vs‑forecast feedback.
• Represent the business in selected industry forums and maintain relationships with leading market advisers such as Aurora, Baringa and AFRY.
• Initially serve as an individual contributor, with a roadmap to build and lead a small team of analysts.

Qualifications

• Eight or more years of experience in European power markets, with at least 3–5 years in market analysis, strategy or revenue modelling.
• Proven track record building or challenging long‑term revenue assumptions for solar PV and/or BESS projects at investment‑grade standard (IC memos or financing evidence welcome).
• Deep, qualified expertise in at least two of the four core markets (France, Italy, Spain, Germany), with appetite and capability to cover all four.
• Strong grasp of power market fundamentals: price formation, capture rates, cannibalisation, capacity and ancillary mechanisms, and BESS value drivers.
• Quantitative strength, comfortable with modelling structures and Excel/code; strategist first, coder second.
• Bold enough to challenge external advisers, originators, M&A teams and financiers when numbers do not stack up.
• Excellent stakeholder management and influencing skills, with experience presenting to investment committees, lenders or institutional shareholders.
• Full‑professional proficiency in English; French a strong plus; Italian or Spanish a bonus.
• Energetic and comfortable working in a build‑phase environment where not everything is defined.

Benefits

• A unique, pivotal role with direct influence over multi‑hundred‑million‑Euro investment decisions in solar PV and BESS.
• The opportunity to build a market strategy and revenue forecasting function from the ground up in a lean, high‑impact team.
• Direct and regular exposure to the CIO, Head of Energy Management and top‑tier institutional shareholders.
• A clear pathway to grow into a leadership position.
• A vibrant, international working environment spanning France, Italy, Spain and Germany.
• The chance to be part of a determined, growth‑stage business where individual contribution is visible and rewarded.
• A competitive remuneration package reflecting the seniority and strategic importance of the role.