Election Forecasting and Political Risk Evaluation

Build election assessments that could have been written at a stated evidence cutoff. Explain polling movement, win probabilities and market-implied odds, identify the causal drivers of political risk, and score model forecasts against your documented judgment without using later events.

Practice scope Forecasting work should include a demonstrated live election-probability record; typically eight or more years of relevant experience or an equivalent record. Local and national expertise are separate routes. Journalism without forecasting, purely theoretical analysis and unrelated geographic experience do not qualify.

Professional background Choose a national forecasting track or a state-specific election track. Both call for evidence that you estimated outcomes, interpreted polls or assigned probabilities while elections were unfolding. Eight years of relevant work is the usual benchmark; a comparably strong record can establish equivalent experience. Explain causal changes in a race as well as statistical uncertainty.

For state coverage, you must know a current, upcoming or recent Senate, gubernatorial or statewide race and its electorate, candidates and local conditions. University survey research, regional polling, campaign analytics and race-rating work can establish this knowledge. National forecasting experience is useful alongside that state expertise. National contributors may instead bring senior polling, campaign strategy, election methodology or political-risk experience. Recognized organizations can support your record but are not a mandatory pedigree. Communications-only, purely theoretical or retrospective work does not establish forecasting ability; unrelated international analysis does not establish knowledge of a US state race.

Location eligibility Local Political — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk: Canada, United States.

Working arrangements This is remote, paid IXO expert work. Agree the specific task brief, permitted materials, outputs and working schedule with IXO before starting. Any commitment or duration described in a practice profile is an indicative planning requirement for that route, subject to that agreement.

Pay $160 $260/hr USD. The applicable rate is agreed for the work and professional track before you begin.

Use only materials you are authorized to share, and keep private or restricted information out of your submissions.